Deccan Chronicle

Deccan Chronicle

The comments of the post have been deleted from this blog as readers may find the stock extremely cheap at current levels sub Rs 10 , if they only read the post and not the Disclaimer

The stock was advised at Rs 30 and came the Care downgrade. We were sceptical at that point as well due to double standards but when we read news that cars were taken back we felt it was a bit more serious.
We yet felt it was good but had to bite the bullet once it halved.

We advised investors to book a 50% loss at 17odd levels as it had entered a speculative phase and was prudent. It had become speculative stock -one which taught me something new.

Its was going to languish for a long time as one blow came after another.

I felt angry at sending a wrong trade to the followers of the blog and discontinued post this trade.

The management played a game which i still continue to ponder.

I always mention never invest more than 5-7 % of the portfolio in a particular stock and do your own due diligence yet a small part within holds that responsibility and study before buying


On this same blog investors have reaped benefits of multibaggers
This was bad as no investor saw something like this

Updated View on Provogue as of 01-July-2012 : Booking Out of Latest Addittions

Updated View on Provogue as of  01-July-2012 : (Closing out New Positions @ 15.4-Gain of 30%)

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/updated-view-on-provogue-as-of-01-july.html

I have been a close follower of Provogue but have changed my views over the last few weeksost results and looking at its balance sheet.
I think its prudent to share it as i have my bullishness.

Note:

This is only for investors who have followed my view on Provogue since Feb 2011.
The Sell is for investors who have added following that.
Primarily stock is good but we have reduced exposure considering various parameters

1) Provogue's a good Business even at current price of 15.
2)If i was a promoter would have bought out and delisted
3)Reason for change in View (important)
a)Bought other mispriced stocks
b) Recent results were pathetic and Empty stores on few surveys across stores.

I have reduced my bullishness on Provogue since i last wrote Multibagger @ 12 levels. and continue to hold only older positions.
Our initial cost on Provogue pre-demerger stood at 24.
so if i split at half between Provogue and Prozone each stands at 12odd. (Assigning Base of Rs12 for Prozone)

Yet i was looking on the Market Cap basis and it continues to look cheap on that.
But on free cash flow basis it was far more disappointing looking at its Balance sheet this FY2012.
On Top RESEULTS WERE Pathetic

I am yet to go through the annual report but the fresh buy as of May 2012 stands close as of 01- July  @ 15.4 (again a Gain of 30%)

FDI in Retail is not going to change much immediately, However PHYSCOLOGICALLY stock would move to around Rs20 and at these levels we are looking to sell half of our pre-Demerger positions.(effective adjusted gain of more than 50%)

.

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer

GMR Infrastructure Updated- 01-July 2012

Hi,

Welcome back.its been a amazing ride since May14 the last i wrote out here.
"As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again."

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/gmr-infrastructure-updated-01-july-2012.html


 Our Infra stock which we sold off fully in Jan-Feb and re entered at lows again.
3 times in a row consecutively.
Seems amazing. Isnt it???

Its time to sell in the coming rally. Keep half and gradually sell half.
The reason being this is a liquidity push rally ans short sellers are trapped

GMR : We again bought this initially around  20-21 and increased it sub 20levels.
              It has bounced 20% and stands at 25 as of close.
              We are planning to sell 10% at every increase of Re1
              So if you held 1000 shares
              Sell 100 at 26, 100 at 27 till you sell 100 at 30 levels if rally extends that long

Refer to other updated views on IVRCL, NCC, Provogue

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer. And indirectly your other half is literally free.

IVRCL Infrastructure Updated- 01-July 2012

Hi,

Welcome back.its been a amazing ride since May14 the last i wrote out here.
"As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again."

 Our Infra stock which we sold off fully in Jan-Feb and re entered at lows again.
3 times in a row consecutively.
Seems amazing. Isnt it???

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/ivrcl-infrastructure-updated-01-july.html

Its time to sell in the coming rally. Keep half and gradually sell half.
The reason being this is a liquidity push rally ans short sellers are trapped

IVRCL: 

Another infra stock we bought at 44 levels and suggested to buy all the way below to 40levels becoz of Essel  groups interest.
(Read Rupeeneversleeps -- Views as of May 2012 ) below link,

We expect a sudden spurt of 7-10% in the next 2 days and suggest existing again 10% on every rise above 56
  So if you held 1000 shares
  Sell 100 at 57, 100 at 62 till you sell 100 at 65 levels if rally extends that long.

Refer to other updated views on GMR, NCC, Provogue

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer. And indirectly your other half is literally free

NCC Updated- 01-July 2012

Hi,

Welcome back.its been a amazing ride since May14 the last i wrote out here.
"As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again."

 Our Infra stock which we sold off fully in Jan-Feb and re entered at lows again.
3 times in a row consecutively.
Seems amazing. Isnt it???

http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/07/ncc-updated-01-july-2012.html


Its time to sell in the coming rally. Keep half and gradually sell half.
The reason being this is a liquidity push rally ans short sellers are trapped

NCC : Ncc I did not mention in May as i bought it much later as it fell very sharply to 30 levels.
            Here we suggest existing 10% from current levels of 45.
            Only if IVRCL DEAL is announced will it rise. So rather ride the horse. "IVRCL" 

look at the correlation over the last one year, post the ESSEL News and last one month. There is a standard 10-15% gap which is mostly corrected


Refer to other updated views on GMR, IVRCL, NCC, Provogue

Again i Repeat the rise seen is these stocks is not structural as RBI Has not budged on the rates and is purely Driven due to GLOBAL RISK-ON.
Hence taking partial profits is advisible. 30-50% in two months is a no brainer. And indirectly your other half is literally free.