Dear Readers,
First let me thank everyone for the positive replies send on my mail id.
Please continue to share your feedback (Positive as well as negative) on rupeeneversleeps@gmail.com.
Remember this is not for an Investor who aims to earns 10-15% in the stockmarkets.
Its for someone who understands Businesses and has risk and patience to hold for longer periods of time.
As of today which are safe stocks to earn 15-20% annually for 2-3. years
They wont include names i may mention below in detail. This is for superior returns which may or may not happen. VERY IMPORTANT NOTE-- In my next Post i will list down stock for people who have low risk appetite and yet can enjoy great returns from equities
We got many ivestment trades right throughout this year so we should be happy.
However one two blunders continue to trouble me. But who said one can be 100% right all the time.
The more important part being when one is wrong how much did one end up loosing.
So lets get down to business again. Market mood is pretty bad and thats the time i usually like to write as while sharing my thoughts i get the motivation to buy more and add at lower levels as well.
Today is your lucky day especially if you are loaded up on cash as i am going to pour my views again------------
So dont rush and Buy everything tommorow. Keep Buying for next 2-3 months and literally we would past the storm far behind.
Before that lets get back to last Four months with Rupeeneversleeps
1)Check enroute post of November - http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2011/10/enroute.html
This is what i wrote in November.
Im buying only UGLY STOCKS----Infra --Power...Realestate .
Refer to twitter updates to know our historic updates on the same. We have been biuying these 3 sectors from November to January.
2)The best part being we sold all infra companies---Isnt that Amazing??
The only stock we continued to hold was IVRCL (primarily on back of takeover by Essel Group)
This is what i wrote on Feb 13 2012
http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/02/ugly-ducklings-delivered.html
A possible 20% correction is possible again in individual names in these sectors from recent highs.
We have shifted the money now to lower beta names with dividendyields of 4-6% which also cracked due to the whole market downfall. They offer a great risk return profile.
Im short on Nifty @ 5331 . I dont see a sharp downside for feb but the budget could be a game changer. Its good to hedge buy shorting or buying lower strike puts.
As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again.
We have bought GMR again @ 20-21rs levels. Delhi Airport Hike is a big positive.
Its assets are far superior to trade at an Enterprise Value of 10-12billion$
If some one owns this stock for next 4-5 years.
Its gonna deliver 4-5 time Return.
I only hope it stays down this time for long that can accumulate it properly.
We bought it last time @28 all the way to 18 and sold off all @ 27.
I have posted this in the posts below and can even reference dates to check if anyone is suprised.
IVRCL is the second stock we bought. That too Today only @44.6 to be precise.
Analysts love coming and advising a Buy when stock howevers @ 70+levels.
and advise a sell today@45. I think its gonna open down tommorow and even slip to 30s but im in no hurry either. I had to buy the first hit today.
Its good now if it goes lower. Atleast now i have some Big third party who feels the value of this company in distressed times is between (70-105rs)-- Essel group is a smart horse and wont go for a shot unless it sees great potential.
Again Advise is Buy ur first percentage and keep buying every week for next 2 months.
Bought Ivrcl @ 52, @ 42 and @34 ----Sold half @ 52.
Sold more @ 64 after i had written the post.
Now have Reentered @44.6 levels.
We have bought Provogue with Added Conviction Post Demerger Aswell.
Will detail Updated Take on Provogue Below.
Now before i go ahead some quick hits and misses on Individual Names over the Past few months.
Let me start with misses as i hate that part as well
1) Lanco: Has been a disaster for me . I had advised @ 24. Bought more @ 8-10 levels and have bought more @12 recently. My take on Lanco is that of an Asset play.
I had thought the government would do more on Coal considering our huge Coal reserves nevertheless i am wrong.
I had said it was for risky investors but i still hold hope on this.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Provogue Update View (Multibagger @ 12rs)
2) Provogue-- Now it Depends on the Reader how has played this stock with me
Please Read Fundamental View on Provogues Business (Continue holding that view)
I had intially advised a Buy On Provogue in Feb 2011 @ 34 levels considering very cheap valuations.
People have not lost much but have not gained as much i expected in the process
What we did??? All info can be crosschecked from this blog and twitter Posts
a) Bought initially @ 34
b) Sold half @ 45 (it moved in a week post my blogpost) actually next day it hit an Upper Circuit
c) Bought @ 24-25
d) Bought Much more @17 (suprisingly near low)--- Lucky me (i was literally shocked to see 17)
e) Our Average Came to 24-25
Prior to demerger advised twice @ 26 and even @ 30 levels
Closed @34rs prior to Demerger So in the process many Buys and Sells---
Now Post Relisting Dont know Market Went Mad and Halved the Stock???
The answer should make you Buy the Stock understanding the Company.
Myth--Capital reduction reduced ShareCapital by half so Stock should trade by Half
Fact--- When there is a Capital Reduction the number of shares also reduce and primarily a sharecapital is used when a company comes out of BIFR.
For example: Share Capital reduced by 10 to 1 so stock falls from 100 to 10. Here if you are holding 100 shares u will get only 10 shares and 90 shares will be reduced.
Another example: When the Face Value of share reduces from 10 to 5 one gets 2 shares for everyone share held so total shares double and price halves.
This is a different type of share reduction due to shiting of assets. Many of you would have got an headache but i will simplify it now.
Important Data to Understand.
See Provogue(standalone Business profit for fy12 around 35crs)------Pre Demerger
Profit remains same ----------------------------------------around 35crs) Post Demereger
Market Cap @34 (Day it went Demerger)-----------388crs-------------Pre Demerger
Market Cap @12-------------------------------------------138crs-------------Post Demerger
So one can do the maths
One Paid 10 times+ Price earnings Pre demerger
And now it trades @ 4 TIMES price earnings at rs12.
One could argue Prozone etc (adjusted value)but Prozone was an added prize.
So you say a Brand like Provogue trades @ 185crs marketcap
And an Cooker company Hawkings at 3000ccrs marketcap.
Provogue has to get it act to gether yet @185crs is Dirt Cheap.
Any PE INVESTORS reading please contact me i have a complete turnartound map for this co to trade at much superior levels.
Its Patience v/s Fear. And dear promoters have been buying in the range of 20-30predemerger @ at 15levels post demerger.
Market is Bad otherwise would have grapped it all in one go
We have bought Provogue with Added Conviction Post Demerger@12.3levels and intend to buyt more if it goes to 10 levels
Will come back soon as market stays down and i love distressed buys.
Good luck
Dont put all eggs in one basket.
Diversify across sectors and stocks and keep
First let me thank everyone for the positive replies send on my mail id.
Please continue to share your feedback (Positive as well as negative) on rupeeneversleeps@gmail.com.
Remember this is not for an Investor who aims to earns 10-15% in the stockmarkets.
Its for someone who understands Businesses and has risk and patience to hold for longer periods of time.
As of today which are safe stocks to earn 15-20% annually for 2-3. years
They wont include names i may mention below in detail. This is for superior returns which may or may not happen. VERY IMPORTANT NOTE-- In my next Post i will list down stock for people who have low risk appetite and yet can enjoy great returns from equities
We got many ivestment trades right throughout this year so we should be happy.
However one two blunders continue to trouble me. But who said one can be 100% right all the time.
The more important part being when one is wrong how much did one end up loosing.
So lets get down to business again. Market mood is pretty bad and thats the time i usually like to write as while sharing my thoughts i get the motivation to buy more and add at lower levels as well.
Today is your lucky day especially if you are loaded up on cash as i am going to pour my views again------------
So dont rush and Buy everything tommorow. Keep Buying for next 2-3 months and literally we would past the storm far behind.
Before that lets get back to last Four months with Rupeeneversleeps
1)Check enroute post of November - http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2011/10/enroute.html
This is what i wrote in November.
Im buying only UGLY STOCKS----Infra --Power...Realestate .
Refer to twitter updates to know our historic updates on the same. We have been biuying these 3 sectors from November to January.
2)The best part being we sold all infra companies---Isnt that Amazing??
The only stock we continued to hold was IVRCL (primarily on back of takeover by Essel Group)
This is what i wrote on Feb 13 2012
http://rupeeneversleeps.blogspot.in/2012/02/ugly-ducklings-delivered.html
A possible 20% correction is possible again in individual names in these sectors from recent highs.
We have shifted the money now to lower beta names with dividendyields of 4-6% which also cracked due to the whole market downfall. They offer a great risk return profile.
Im short on Nifty @ 5331 . I dont see a sharp downside for feb but the budget could be a game changer. Its good to hedge buy shorting or buying lower strike puts.
As of Date We have got out of those low beta stocks and have started buying select infra names again.
We have bought GMR again @ 20-21rs levels. Delhi Airport Hike is a big positive.
Its assets are far superior to trade at an Enterprise Value of 10-12billion$
If some one owns this stock for next 4-5 years.
Its gonna deliver 4-5 time Return.
I only hope it stays down this time for long that can accumulate it properly.
We bought it last time @28 all the way to 18 and sold off all @ 27.
I have posted this in the posts below and can even reference dates to check if anyone is suprised.
IVRCL is the second stock we bought. That too Today only @44.6 to be precise.
Analysts love coming and advising a Buy when stock howevers @ 70+levels.
and advise a sell today@45. I think its gonna open down tommorow and even slip to 30s but im in no hurry either. I had to buy the first hit today.
Its good now if it goes lower. Atleast now i have some Big third party who feels the value of this company in distressed times is between (70-105rs)-- Essel group is a smart horse and wont go for a shot unless it sees great potential.
Again Advise is Buy ur first percentage and keep buying every week for next 2 months.
Bought Ivrcl @ 52, @ 42 and @34 ----Sold half @ 52.
Sold more @ 64 after i had written the post.
Now have Reentered @44.6 levels.
We have bought Provogue with Added Conviction Post Demerger Aswell.
Will detail Updated Take on Provogue Below.
Now before i go ahead some quick hits and misses on Individual Names over the Past few months.
Let me start with misses as i hate that part as well
1) Lanco: Has been a disaster for me . I had advised @ 24. Bought more @ 8-10 levels and have bought more @12 recently. My take on Lanco is that of an Asset play.
I had thought the government would do more on Coal considering our huge Coal reserves nevertheless i am wrong.
I had said it was for risky investors but i still hold hope on this.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Provogue Update View (Multibagger @ 12rs)
2) Provogue-- Now it Depends on the Reader how has played this stock with me
Please Read Fundamental View on Provogues Business (Continue holding that view)
I had intially advised a Buy On Provogue in Feb 2011 @ 34 levels considering very cheap valuations.
People have not lost much but have not gained as much i expected in the process
What we did??? All info can be crosschecked from this blog and twitter Posts
a) Bought initially @ 34
b) Sold half @ 45 (it moved in a week post my blogpost) actually next day it hit an Upper Circuit
c) Bought @ 24-25
d) Bought Much more @17 (suprisingly near low)--- Lucky me (i was literally shocked to see 17)
e) Our Average Came to 24-25
Prior to demerger advised twice @ 26 and even @ 30 levels
Closed @34rs prior to Demerger So in the process many Buys and Sells---
Now Post Relisting Dont know Market Went Mad and Halved the Stock???
The answer should make you Buy the Stock understanding the Company.
Myth--Capital reduction reduced ShareCapital by half so Stock should trade by Half
Fact--- When there is a Capital Reduction the number of shares also reduce and primarily a sharecapital is used when a company comes out of BIFR.
For example: Share Capital reduced by 10 to 1 so stock falls from 100 to 10. Here if you are holding 100 shares u will get only 10 shares and 90 shares will be reduced.
Another example: When the Face Value of share reduces from 10 to 5 one gets 2 shares for everyone share held so total shares double and price halves.
This is a different type of share reduction due to shiting of assets. Many of you would have got an headache but i will simplify it now.
Important Data to Understand.
See Provogue(standalone Business profit for fy12 around 35crs)------Pre Demerger
Profit remains same ----------------------------------------around 35crs) Post Demereger
Market Cap @34 (Day it went Demerger)-----------388crs-------------Pre Demerger
Market Cap @12-------------------------------------------138crs-------------Post Demerger
So one can do the maths
One Paid 10 times+ Price earnings Pre demerger
And now it trades @ 4 TIMES price earnings at rs12.
One could argue Prozone etc (adjusted value)but Prozone was an added prize.
So you say a Brand like Provogue trades @ 185crs marketcap
And an Cooker company Hawkings at 3000ccrs marketcap.
Provogue has to get it act to gether yet @185crs is Dirt Cheap.
Any PE INVESTORS reading please contact me i have a complete turnartound map for this co to trade at much superior levels.
Its Patience v/s Fear. And dear promoters have been buying in the range of 20-30predemerger @ at 15levels post demerger.
Market is Bad otherwise would have grapped it all in one go
We have bought Provogue with Added Conviction Post Demerger@12.3levels and intend to buyt more if it goes to 10 levels
Will come back soon as market stays down and i love distressed buys.
Good luck
Dont put all eggs in one basket.
Diversify across sectors and stocks and keep
